What to say to an expired listing?

Why Expired Listings Are a High-Value Opportunity Most Agents Miss

Expired listings represent one of the most overlooked yet predictable opportunities in real estate lead generation. With 4.5 million expired leads projected for 2025, this pool continues to grow at a significant pace—up from 3.3 million in 2023, reflecting a 35% increase over two years. What makes this segment particularly valuable is not just its scale but its predictability: the first of every month generates 3-5 times the normal volume of expirations, as most listing contracts terminate on that date, creating reliable monthly spikes agents can plan around.

January 1st stands out as the single biggest lead day of the year, with 166,031 expired listings recorded in 2026—15.2 times the typical daily volume. This annual surge presents a critical window for agents who understand timing and persistence. Beyond volume, the relisting behavior of expired owners adds further urgency: between 90% and 95% of all expired properties are eventually relisted and sold within six months, with nearly 45% relisting within 30 to 35 days of expiration. This high conversion potential, combined with seasonal and monthly patterns, transforms expired listings from random disappointments into a structured, high-intent lead source when approached with the right strategy.

For agents using a qualified lead approach like GrowthPros’, this predictability enables smarter allocation of resources. Rather than chasing cold or unresponsive prospects, teams can focus on expired owners during peak motivation windows—particularly within the first 24 hours after expiration and during mid-week mornings (Monday-Wednesday, 10 AM–3 PM local time), when answer rates peak. By combining timely outreach with personalized, data-backed messaging—such as referencing specific gaps in staging, decluttering, or photography—agents position themselves not as another interruption, but as a helpful expert ready to solve the seller’s problem. This alignment between market patterns and empathetic, solution-focused communication is what turns expired listings into one of the most reliable paths to closed transactions.

The Empathy-First Approach: What to Say in Your First Contact

When a listing expires, the seller has already fielded a flood of calls and generic voicemail blasts — so your first message determines whether you sound like the solution or just more noise. The good news: research shows exactly what separates agents who convert expired listings from agents who get ignored.

The moment a listing expires, sellers are frustrated. They're fielding unanswered calls and deleting voicemails from agents they've never met. Cold calling at this stage often yields pick-up rates under 2%, according to SMS outreach research, because sellers dismiss you as one more interruption. Your first words should acknowledge their disappointment — not explain why you're better than their last agent. HousingWire's expert guidance is blunt on this point: never bash the previous agent, and frame your mindset as "they need my help to achieve their goal."

Text messages carry a 98% open rate compared to just 20-30% for voicemail, making SMS the strongest channel for that critical first touch. It's non-intrusive — sellers read and respond on their own schedule — and it lets you personalize at scale. The most effective opening text references the specific property address and proves you've actually reviewed the listing details, including photos and price history, rather than sending something generic, per script research from Sifta.

Your opening message should do three things in under a few sentences: acknowledge the frustration, show you've done your homework, and offer one specific, valuable insight that builds credibility without sounding salesy. A Wake County MLS analysis of 100+ expired listings gives you ready-made talking points:

• Staging: 86% of sold homes were staged, while 70% of expired homes weren't
• Decluttering: 98% of sold homes were decluttered vs. only 74% of expired ones
• Photography: 98% of sold listings had high-quality photos vs. just 62% of expired listings

Mentioning one of these gaps — "I noticed the listing photos didn't showcase the kitchen's natural light" — instantly positions you as someone who diagnosed the problem, not someone pitching a service.

End with a single, simple call to action. Effective scripts use one clear ask like "Reply YES to reconnect" — never multiple options. And your goal for the first reply isn't a listing agreement; it's a 15-minute meeting to demonstrate value, which lowers pressure and raises response rates. This mirrors how GrowthPros approaches every qualified lead: fast, personalized, value-first contact inside the window when attention is highest — because the seller who hears from you first, with something useful to say, is the one who replies.

How to Execute a Persistent, Multi-Touch Follow-Up Sequence That Converts

Most agents quit after the second follow-up — and that's exactly why 70% of listings are won by someone else between the 5th and 12th contact attempt, according to expired listing market data. Persistence isn't optional here; it's the entire game.

Build your sequence around 4 to 12 touches spread across 7–14 days, mixing SMS, voice, and email. Each touch must deliver something new — never repeat the same message twice. A practical follow-up framework suggests four to five contacts over two weeks, each carrying fresh information, then a monthly check-in if the seller isn't ready to relist.

A proven cadence looks like this:

• Day 1, morning: phone call, followed by a text if there's no answer
• Day 2–3: a handwritten or printed letter with a specific insight
• Day 5–7: an email with recent comparable sales or buyer interest
• Day 10–14: a final SMS with one clear, low-friction call to action like "Reply YES to reconnect"

Every touch should give the seller a reason to keep engaging: a recent comp, a staging tip grounded in data (98% of sold homes were decluttered versus 74% of expired ones, per one brokerage's analysis of 100+ expired listings), or news of an active buyer in their price range.

Timing matters as much as frequency. Vulcan7's prospecting data shows the best calling windows fall Monday through Wednesday, 10 AM to 3 PM, with Monday the strongest day at a 6.16% answer rate and 11 AM Eastern the peak hour. Schedule your voice touches in that window; let SMS and email work around the clock, since texts carry a 98% open rate versus 20–30% for voicemail.

Automation is what makes this sustainable. Manually running 12 touches per lead across dozens of expireds is how agents burn out and follow-up quietly dies — one agent's inadequate follow-up on five expired prospects cost roughly $60,000 in lost commission. This is the same logic behind GrowthPros' speed-to-lead approach: every qualified lead gets AI voice, SMS, and email follow-up inside a five-minute window, so the sequence runs whether or not you're at your desk.

The goal of the first reply is never a listing agreement — it's a 15-minute meeting to demonstrate value. Keep each touch short, specific, and generous with information, and the sequence does the persuading for you.